Selling Amazon
The Trade
Sold to open: 1,300 AMZN Sep 18, 2026 $200 puts @ $2.30
Premium collected: $299,000
Breakeven: $197.70
Days to expiration: 63
With AMZN trading at $245.76, this seller is committing to buy Amazon nearly 19% below the current price and getting paid about $300K for it.
Probability of finishing ITM at expiration: ~12.3% at the current mid, ~13.7% at the fill’s implied vol. This is roughly a 1-in-7 assignment probability trade with an 86–88% win rate on the binary outcome.
Bull Case -Why the Seller Wins
The cushion is huge. AMZN would need to fall 18.6% just to reach the strike and 19.6% to breach breakeven, a drawdown that would take the stock below its 52-week low of $196. Short puts on quality mega-caps at strikes below the annual low have historically been one of the highest win-rate income structures available.